Short answer: yes, and October made it clearer. Over the 12 months to 30 October 2026 the euro is down 2.6% against a basket of 15 other major currencies, 12th of 16. In mid-October it was 9th and down 1.9%. October itself was the euro's worst month since April 2020: it lost 1.9% against the basket and fell in every week of the month.
That still isn't a collapse. But the story has changed. Until September the euro was mostly standing still while high-yielding currencies ran ahead of it. In October it was falling on its own account.
October: the euro's worst month since 2020
The euro lost ground against almost everyone, and most of all against its neighbours. It fell 5.4% against the Norwegian krone, 3.1% against the Swedish krona, 3.0% against the Swiss franc and 2.4% against the British pound. Against the US dollar it lost 1.6%. Only the forint, the zloty and the hryvnia did as badly or worse: the Hungarian forint was flat against the euro and the Polish zloty lost 0.8% to it. The Danish krone, pegged to the euro, fell with it.
Three things weighed on it at the same time.
Energy. Brent crude rose 13.6% in October and finished the month above $110 a barrel, as the war with Iran threatened supply from the Gulf. The euro area imports most of its oil and gas, so an energy shock hurts its trade balance and its growth, while it helps exporters like Norway. Euro-area inflation was 3.8% in September, and the ECB now describes energy prices as an upside risk.
France. French ten-year government bond yields climbed close to 5%, their highest since 2002, and the premium over German debt has been near its widest since the 2011 debt crisis. The worst of it came at the start of the month: on 2 October the euro had its biggest one-day loss of October, while the Swiss franc jumped 1.4% against the basket.
An ECB on hold. On 29 October the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50%. Christine Lagarde said a hike had been discussed, and markets still expected one in December. She also said she would leave the ECB in February, well before her term ends, which opened a succession question on top of the rate decision.
Still a mid-table currency over 12 months
Looking at EUR against a single pair like EUR/USD can be misleading, because it only tells you how the euro is doing against one other currency. In the full 16-currency strength ranking, the euro sits 12th of 16, behind the Czech koruna (−2.5%) and just ahead of the Danish krone (−2.7%) and the Swedish krona (−3.0%). Over three years it is up 0.5%.
The high-yielders are still the main reason it trails. The Australian dollar (+8.9%), the Norwegian krone (+11.1%) and the Hungarian forint (+3.8%) carry policy rates of 4.60%, 4.50% and 5.50%, against the ECB's 2.50%. That's the carry trade at work: money flows toward the higher yield, and lower-yield currencies drift down the ranking by comparison.
Two ECB hikes, and the euro still slipped
The ECB raised rates in June 2026, its first hike since 2023, and again on 10 September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. It held on 29 October.
A central bank that has raised rates twice this year isn't the profile of a currency in structural decline. But the Fed hiked too, six days after the ECB in September and by the same quarter point, and both held in October, so the rate gap with the dollar hasn't changed. What moved the euro in October was the energy price and France, not the rate gap. Our October review goes through the month.
What would make the euro weaker still
Three things would turn a 12-month dip into a real downtrend. The first is the ECB going back to cuts, or simply staying on hold, while the Fed and other central banks keep hiking, which would widen the rate gap. The second is a growth or political shock inside the euro area big enough to trigger capital outflows. France's bond market is the place to watch for that, and October showed how quickly stress there reaches the currency. The third is the euro's real (inflation-adjusted) performance staying clearly negative: it is −3.1% over 12 months, 14th of 16, worse than the nominal figure because euro-area inflation is above the basket average. You can check it with the real strength mode toggle.
The first isn't in play yet, the second is partly in play, and the third has started. The 12-month dip is no longer only a relative-yield story.
How to track it yourself
- Watch it against the whole basket, not one pair. EUR vs USD tells you about dollar strength as much as euro weakness. The worldwide dashboard shows the euro against all 16.
- Check the real vs nominal gap. If real strength keeps falling faster than nominal, that's the earlier warning sign of an actual purchasing-power problem.
- Watch the ECB-Fed rate gap. A narrowing gap tends to support the euro; a widening one tends to pressure it. The next decisions are eight days apart: the Fed on 9 December, the ECB on 17 December.
Compare the euro directly against other majors: EUR vs USD, EUR vs CHF, or EUR vs GBP. And since EUR/USD is the pair most people watch, it's worth reading the other side of it: how strong is the US dollar right now? If you want to know why a euro index and a dollar index can tell opposite stories on the same day, see what a currency index actually measures.
This article is informational, not investment advice.